After reviewing Fangraphs data, I've decided to be patient with the .178 hitting Kyle Seager because he's being much more patient at the plate; he's just been unlucky. His hitting should rebound when his luck does.
Season AVG BABIP HR/FB Contact%
2011 0.258 0.303 4.8% 84.5%
2012 0.259 0.286 9.8% 82.4%
2013 0.178 0.211 0.0% 83.1%
Season BB% K% BB/K
2011 6.5% 17.9% 0.36
2012 7.1% 16.9% 0.42
2013 10.0% 14.0% 0.71
Season LD% GB% FB%
2011 27.7% 30.4% 41.9%
2012 21.9% 35.9% 42.3%
2013 15.8% 36.8% 47.4%
Several things are striking:
- Seager's making contact when he swings at the same rate he has in the past (Contact%).
- He's exhibiting an improved eye for the strikezone with a much improved walk rate (BB%) and and improved strikeout rate (K%), so his BB/K ratio has improved substantially.
- When he does make contact though, he's terribly unlucky and needs to "hit'em where they ain't" -- his batting average on balls in play is terrible and far below Seager's career numbers and the league average. His "expected Batting Average" is .282 for this season. So, even though we're working from a small sample size, his batting average is due for a correction based on the underlying skills.
- The concern is that Seager isn't putting "good wood on the ball." He may be making the same rate of contact, but his line drive rate is down, and he's lifting more balls (FB%). Combine with that, an increased infield fly ball rate and infield hit rate, and you have a guy that isn't making the ball go very far when he does make contact. This is the one issue that could prevent as much of a positive correction as I'm hoping for.
